Find mispriced
Polymarket bets
in seconds.
Weather forecasts, crypto oracle drift, and resolution probabilities — delivered as a clean API. The same signals quant traders use to spot mispriced markets every day. From $49.99/mo. Less than one losing bet.
PWS daily-max sample
Polymarket share prices lag the underlying. Find the gap, take the trade.
Polymarket markets resolve on real things — the BTC oracle price, the daily high in NYC, the close in Frankfurt. When the share price disagrees with the underlying, that's a mispricing. We surface it every second.
Share price vs the actual coin price.
Polymarket BTC markets resolve on a Chainlink oracle. That oracle reads slower than the live spot. So when BTC moves up 1.2% on Binance, the share at "BTC ≥ $76,500" often hasn't repriced — it's still trading on the lagged oracle. Our API hands you both, every second, with the gap precomputed in basis points.
- Live BTC / ETH / XRP price on Binance + Chainlink oracle reading
- Current Chainlink oracle reading + lag in seconds
- Polymarket YES price + implied probability
- edge_bps = the precomputed gap
Share price vs what the weather is actually doing.
"Will NYC's daily-high hit 28°C?" By 11 a.m. the station already shows 26.4°C. Polymarket's YES still trades at 65¢ but our bias-corrected ensemble puts the close at 82%. The market is behind the actual reading. We compute that gap in real time for every weather market on Polymarket, across 44 cities.
- Real-time daily-max temperature per city
- Bias-corrected ensemble forecast (ECMWF · GFS · ICON · JMA · UKMO)
- Resolution probability, 0–1, every minute
- edge_pp = our prob − Polymarket prob
What this actually looks like.
Three real scenarios. Replace your gut feel with measured probabilities.
Polymarket trails the morning weather station read. By 11am the station already shows 26.4°C — our ensemble puts the close at 82%. The market hasn't caught up.
Binance spot is $76,820 but the Chainlink oracle that resolves the market still reads $76,180 — a 30s lag. Polymarket prices the lagged oracle. We surface the gap as it opens.
Bias-corrected ensemble flags a cold front the GFS underweights. Resolution probability endpoint returns 0.54. You see it before Brazilian traders wake up.
Illustrative scenarios drawn from real market data. Past edges don't guarantee future ones.
Sharper inputs for the only two markets that move.
Weather and crypto resolve on hard data — not vibes. We turn that data into the probabilities Polymarket should be quoting, so you can spot the gap.
Will today's high temp hit the threshold?
We track 44 cities with weather stations and forecast models. Our API gives you the true probability that each Polymarket weather market resolves YES — updated as the day unfolds.
- 44 cities worldwide
- Updated every minute
- Tells you YES probability for every market
Is Polymarket's price wrong vs the real market?
When Polymarket's odds drift from the actual BTC/ETH/XRP price on Binance and the Chainlink oracle, that's your trade. We surface the gap every second — before the market closes it.
- BTC, ETH, XRP coverage
- Polymarket vs Binance vs Chainlink
- Refreshed every second, 24/7
Three steps. About a minute.
No sales call. No NDA. No annual contract.
Magic link, no password, no credit card. You land on the dashboard with a free API key already issued.
Trader, Crypto Bundle, the combo, or Pro. Stripe Checkout — change or cancel any time from the billing portal.
Standard REST + WebSocket. Or drop our MCP server into Claude Code / Cursor and let the AI build your bot.
Build your own models. We default to raw.
Every endpoint returns the raw inputs by default — actual station observations, every member of every forecast model, the full Chainlink reading, the spot price on each exchange. Bias correction and resolution probability are opt-in. If you want to fit your own model on the same data, just don't pass ?bias_corrected=true and ignore the probability endpoint.
- Station observations (5-min cadence, ICAO-coded)
- Every ensemble member (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA, UKMO)
- Raw Chainlink aggregator reading + lag in seconds
- Per-asset spot (Binance reference)
- JSON over REST · WebSocket stream on Pro
- 30-day history (Trader) · full archive (Pro)
Boring REST. AI-native by default.
Predictable JSON, X-API-Key auth, OpenAPI spec at /docs. An MCP server so Claude or Cursor can build your bot for you.
curl https://api.datapolymarket.com/v1/weather/resolution-probability/0xd4d8... \
-H "X-API-Key: $DPM_KEY"
# → {
# "city": "Sao Paulo",
# "threshold_c": 26,
# "yes_probability": 0.7339,
# "method": "ensemble+bias+posterior+prob_gte",
# "confidence": "medium"
# }Buy a tier, get the key emailed instantly. No sales call, no NDAs.
The same feeds we use ourselves. If something breaks, we know — and we fix it fast.
Drop a 4-line config into Claude Code or Cursor and let the AI call our endpoints natively.
The same data, twenty times cheaper.
Bloomberg terminals, Tardis, Kaiko — all great, all priced for funds. We rebuilt the slice that matters for Polymarket and put it on a self-serve checkout.
| Generic data vendors | datapolymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Starting price | $999/mo and up | $49.99/mo |
| Polymarket coverage | Generic market dump | Weather + crypto, modeled |
| Forecasts | Raw ensemble feed | Bias-corrected + Kalman + W6 calibration |
| Resolution probability | Build it yourself | Single endpoint, every market |
| Sign-up | Sales call, NDA, contract | Email + magic link, 30 seconds |
| AI integration | — | Native MCP server |
| Built by | A data engineering team | A trader running these strategies live |
Less than one losing bet.
One trade with edge pays for a year. Pick what you need, stack the bundles, cancel any time. The free tier never expires.
Trader
Solo retail building weather strategies.
- All 44 cities, real-time PWS
- Daily endpoint + basic ensemble
- 30-day history
- 120 req/min
Weather + Crypto Combo
Save $25/moThe right pick for most traders. Both datasets in one bill.
- Everything in Trader
- Chainlink oracle-lag (BTC · ETH · XRP)
- Polymarket bid/ask book + Binance reference price
- Single SKU — no double charge
- 30-day history on both feeds
Pro
Multi-strategy bot teams in production.
- Everything in Trader
- Bias-corrected ensemble + Kalman
- Resolution-probability endpoint
- Websocket stream
- Full historical archive
- 600 req/min
Need higher rate limits, white-label, or SLAs? Talk to us about Enterprise.
Plug in Claude, Cursor, Codex.
One MCP server. Every modern AI coding agent calls our API as a native tool.
npx @datapolymarket/mcpAdd MCP serverMCP-compatible configHonest answers.
What does "Polymarket mispricing" actually mean?+
It's the gap between what a Polymarket share is paying out and what the underlying truth is doing. If BTC just moved up 1.2% on Binance but the YES at $76,500 still trades at 48¢, that's a mispricing — the share hasn't caught up to the price move. Same idea for weather: if the daily-max threshold is already 26.4°C at 11 a.m. but YES still trades at 65¢, the market is behind. Our API surfaces those gaps every second.
Where does the weather data come from?+
Real weather stations and the same forecast models professional meteorologists use (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA, UKMO). We then adjust each city's known biases using historical data — so what you read is closer to what will actually happen.
How does the resolution probability work?+
Every minute we ask: given the temperature so far today, the latest forecast, and what we know about this city's bias — what's the chance the market closes YES? You get a single number between 0 and 1. If Polymarket's price disagrees, that's your edge.
How fresh is the crypto data?+
Updated every second. We compare Polymarket's share price to the real BTC/ETH/XRP prices on Binance and the Chainlink oracle that resolves the market. When they drift apart, you see it instantly.
Do I need to be a programmer?+
Not anymore. Plug our API into Claude, Cursor, or any AI coding tool via our MCP server — it makes the requests for you. Just ask in English: "find me 3 mispriced Polymarket weather markets right now" and let the AI do the work.
Are the predictions guaranteed?+
No. Markets are uncertain — that's exactly why edge exists. We sell sharper inputs, not guaranteed outcomes. You make the call.
Can I cancel anytime?+
Yes. Stripe handles billing. Cancel any time from your dashboard, billing stops at the end of the current period. No claw-backs, no questions.
How do I get support if something breaks?+
Two channels: priority Telegram at @datapolymarket (live, fastest — for outages, integration questions, anything time-sensitive) and email at hello@datapolymarket.com (slower but documented). Telegram is also where we ship public status updates and feature announcements.
Stop guessing. Start measuring.
Free key in 30 seconds. No card. No sales call. The free tier already covers the basics — upgrade only when an edge pays for it.